Canada has long ranked among Hawai‘i’s top international visitor markets, second only to Japan in terms of annual arrivals. Canadians typically visit Hawai‘i in the winter months to escape the colder climate, boosting the islands’ hospitality sector during shoulder or slower U.S. travel seasons.

However, a series of public statements from former President Donald Trump—criticizing Canada’s trade policies and threatening new tariffs March 1st—has triggered a wave of media attention and has already influenced Canadian consumer sentiment, including travel behavior.

Trump has agreed to hold off on imposing the 25% tariffs on Canada and Japan for at least 30 days in exchange for both countries solidifying their borders. This is most likely his way of using threats to force cooperation from both countries.

Amid currency headwinds (a weaker Canadian dollar) and rising travel costs, some Canadian visitors are now stating that Maui and other Hawaiian Islands have become “too expensive”, especially when factoring in potential new tariffs or political tensions. Early anecdotal reports from tour operators in Western Canada suggest a decline in winter bookings for the upcoming season. Trump’s rhetoric, proposed tariffs, and Canadian sentiment is changing Hawai‘i’s reliance on the visitor industry.

Significance of Canadian Tourism to Hawai‘i

Pre-Pandemic Arrivals:

Prior to COVID-19, Canada was Hawai‘i’s second-largest international source of visitors after Japan. In 2019, Hawai‘i welcomed approximately 540,103 Canadian tourists, with total spending surpassing $1.07 billion.

Seasonal Patterns:

Canadians disproportionately visit during the cooler months (November through March). This winter “escape” travel is crucial for supporting hotel occupancy and spending in what could otherwise be a slower season for Hawai‘i’s tourism-dependent businesses.

Spending Habits:

On average, Canadian travelers stay longer (over 12 days on average) than many other international visitors, and they often rent condos or visit multiple islands. The extended length of stay translates into higher per-visitor spending on lodging, food, entertainment, and activities in Hawaii.

Exchange Rate Pressures

Another consistent factor influencing Canadian arrivals is the exchange rate between the Canadian dollar (CAD) and the U.S. dollar (USD). When the CAD weakens, Canadians’ purchasing power in Hawai‘i falls, making vacations more expensive. Currently, the exchange rate hovered around $1 CAD = $0.70 USD, a notable decline from near parity a decade ago. This currency gap, combined with steep inflation in food, lodging, and airfare, already contributed to Canadians’ sentiment that Hawai‘i is becoming “too expensive.”

Impact on Airline and Tour Packages

Tour operators like WestJet Vacations and Air Canada Vacations typically offer direct flights from Canadian cities (Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto) to Kahului (Maui) and other Hawai‘i destinations. In late 2023, some carriers reported softened demand for spring 2024 packages to Maui. To maintain load factors, airlines considered discounting fares, but given higher operational costs (fuel, staffing, etc.), significant fare cuts were not always feasible.

Anxiety in Hawai‘i’s Tourism Sector

Interviews with several Maui hospitality managers published in local newspapers reveal growing concern about the possibility of losing Canadian visitors—especially on top of the recent blow to West Maui from the August 2023 wildfires. Although Canadians historically concentrate in South Maui (Kīhei, Wailea) and Ka‘anapali as well, the entire island economy benefits when Canadians visit. With uncertainty surrounding future U.S. tariffs or political stances, some hotels have already shifted marketing budgets to alternative markets (mainland U.S., Japan, Oceania) to hedge the risk of Canadian cancellations.

Long-Term Scenarios

Modest, Short-Lived Impact

If tensions recede or are overshadowed by other global events, Canadian travel to Hawai‘i may return to normal cyclical patterns.

Prolonged Boycotts and Lower Demand

Continued hostile rhetoric and any official tariffs could reinforce a sense of unwelcome, leading to multi-year declines in Canadian visits. The island hospitality sector would adjust by courting alternative markets (mainland U.S., Japan, South Korea, Australia).

Wider U.S.-Canada Economic Rift

In a worst-case scenario where reciprocal tariffs escalate, Canadian disposable income for U.S. travel might shrink overall. Hawai‘i’s tourism might permanently lose a portion of its Canadian base, forcing deeper transformation in marketing and development.

If Hawai‘i successfully communicates its distance from mainland political controversies, the long-standing Canada–Hawai‘i relationship may well endure, albeit with temporary dips in arrivals. For now, however, the combination of cost concerns and political uncertainty has made some Canadians think twice about visiting Maui, underscoring the outsized influence national politics can have on local economies thousands of miles away.